The newly elected president of Somalia has sent adelegation to Kismayo, Lower Jubba region, on November 7, 2012, to report aboutthe security of the town and a multi-million dollar charcoal business.
The presidential delegation consisted of African UnionMission in Somalia, AMISOM, and Somali army officials, as well as journalists,both local and international.
The delegation met with AMISOM officials at the airport,mainly Kenyan contingent who constitute the bulk of AMISOM forces in JubbaRegions, but Raskamboni leader, Ahmed Madobe, who leads a militia that hailsfrom the region and is allied with Federal Government, but it is not part ofit, had refused, as reported by Al-Jazeera reporter, Peter Greste, who wasamong the delegation, on Al-Jazeera blog on November 8, 2012, to meet them.They returned to Mogadishu.
Tourism minister of Kenya had supplied a reason as to whythe Somali and AMISOM delegation were sent back to Mogadishu, speaking to BBCSomali Service on November 8, 2012: no prior arrangement was made.
A variation of this justification was also offered by aspokesperson of the temporary administration of Kismayo, Abdinasir Seerar, whospoke to VOA Somali Section on the issue.
This comes when there was a disagreement on number ofissues between some locals and the central government in Mogadishu.
The president of Somalia in compliance with UnitedNations resolutions and in protecting the environment, some reputableorganization have symbolized the charcoal business as ecocide, have appealed toall authorities to stop exporting the charcoal, in a presidential statementcirculated in the internet .The Somali ambassador to Kenya have also agreedwith the president and appealed to the cessation of all export of the charcoal.
Both the president and the ambassador, however, failed tolearnt a popular consensus in Jubba regions endorsed by AMISOM, Federalgovernment army in Jubba regions, Mohamed Farah being its spokesperson whospoke on the issue to VOA Somali service, Raskamboni militia and ordinarypeople: a) export the the current charcoal, but produce no more charcoal bycutting the trees; b) if the current charcoal is not exported a lot of ordinarypeople will lose money and this may decrease the support of the people to thegovernment, they will think the government is not on their side) If the currentcharcoal is not exported, then it will pose environmental hazard on account itshuge quantity. The president and the ambassador did not appear to haveappreciated these points initially, but saw its environmental and legalramifications alone.
This is a good lesson for the president and the ambassadorbecause it signifies the importance of listening to local people first beforeproducing official publications for implementations.
The federal government has finally learned to findsolution to the charcoal, even high ranking American official, Wendy Sherman,has suggested this, after visiting Mogadishu last week.
It sent a delegation to study the matter; Ahmed Madobewronged the wrong by refusing to meet them.
Does Somalia have at this moment means to resolve suchconflicts?
No, it does not have one at this time, but it can work tohave one in the next four years or so.
First, it ought to have a constitution that has passed areferendum, that is to say a constitution that has popular support, a widelyagreed document that governs the relationship between local and federalauthorities, on such matters as revenue and resources sharing.
Moreover, Somalia needs apolitical police force andindependent judiciary system to use the constitution for the purpose ofresolving all conflicts peacefully, but still a number of political conflictscan rise, such as those related to governance issues: who will govern Kismaayo,and by extension Jubba regions,? These questions are better resolved by voters,not by judges or constitution for that matter. So, conditions in which peoplecan vote has to be created and then people allowed render a verdict.
In the short term,however, Jubba regions can imitate the creation of the federal government tocreate a regional administration in the area, clan elders, technical committee,parliament and president and so on.
Isha: keydmedia.com
Some people question the wisdom behind adding Gedo into Jubba regions, for they argue that jubbaland state would have Darod weight.
Currently, FG army is predominantly Merahan, whereas Raskamboni is predominantly Ogaden, two Darod sun-clans.
If Jubbaland is formed, Darod clans will politically and militarily dominate the state. This may not be allowed by other clans, such as Hawiye, Digil & Mirifle, Dir and the Fifth clan.
There is two factors that will encourage the formation such state; first, Kenya favors Jubbaland state due its desire to create buffet zone between Somalia's wars and itself; second, the majority of the government troops in the region endorse the notion of Jubbaland, as confirmed by their spokesperso, Mohamed Farah; Raskamboni, allied paramilitary group, also fervently supports the Jubbaland state.
These two factors would give petus to that formation of Jubbaland state.
There are other forces working against formation of Jubbaland state;
first, only two regions of the proposed Jubbaland state are free, in fact, significant districts of these two regions are still in the hands of Shebab, Jamaame and Baardheere being cases in point. The third region is still n the hands Shebab, middle Jubba region. So, these regions ought to be liberated and defended first. This would require not only the support of these regions but also the support of all Somali regions to counter the national threat of Shebab.
Second, Ethipiopia seems to oppose the Jubbaland project due to Ogaden clan' s influence In the state, for fear that they may support their kinsmen in Ethiopia.
They may incline Gedo authorities to oppose the project. There is already evidence for that, Mohamud Sayid Adam's recent statement being a case in point. It is unfortunate non-Somalia have say in Somali political fate. This will end when Somalis start to vote regarding the nature of their political structure and leadership.
Third, other non-Darod clans may also combine to ensure Jubbaland as proposed is not formed.
But the solution as usual is clear; find ways in which people in each district and sub-district can select representatives who who then shall make decision about the structure and leadership of their region, until such time as people can vote for political leadership or political structure, referendum on constitution. All parties agree on this much, allowing people to choose their leadership and structure of governance up to allowing them to vote.
What actors don't agree is shorter term arrangements; this can be resolved by following the model of FG creation, elders, parliament, president and so on.
The primary opponent of Jubbaland initiative has been portrayed as TNT president of Somalia, a member of Hawiye clan. Historical rivalry obtains between Darod and Hawiye clan which has been manifesting itself in various forms.
Even though the president may advocate for all clans, he can still be seen as a rival by proponents if Jubbaland initiative and advocate of Haiwye tribes in the region.
Many sites including allidamale.com have portrayed him as advancing clan interests as opposed to national interests. They too could be accused of pushing clan agenda, Jubbaland state dominated by Darod tribes, even though proponents of Jubbaland claim that they are for inclusive administration encompassing all clans in the region, by the very idea of Jubbaland contradicts that principes of of self-detemination, namely people in that region shall decide whether to combine these regions or that regions, whether for instance to combine middle Jubba and Bay as opposed to to combining Jubba provinces. The structure of to be formed states should be left to people who live in the region, not to be pre- determined by local or external actors, or their combinations. In essence people in that region should be left to choose not only their leadership but also their political structure.
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