April 4, 2016

On bed 2145-0500

April 3, 2016

Another security officer killed, third as reporters report in 24 hours; Radio Mogadishu website did not talk about this; Somalia's various branches of local and federal government did not either the same as what happened yesterday.

Now, extremists have shelled the presidential palace and densely populated districts around the palace. The effects of these indescriminate shelling are not known yet. 

Puntland is negotiating with FGS, Banadir is not able to negotiate despite injustices.

It appears to be the policy of the current Adminstration of Somalia's publically funded administrations to report anything related to security matters in Mogadishu, remain silent. 

They did not talk about what happen on Friday, 4 people separately killed, 2 of them security officers, as reported, and two others. The same applies on Saturday, shelling of the presidential palace around 3pm afternoon. 

March 23, 2016

Slept 0930-0500, close to 7.5 hours. Feel great.

 Temperament consulting 

There is now biological basis for the notion of four four personality types, which has been around for more than thousands of years.

One type is, from biological point of view is estrogen demanded persoanlities. Estrogen is generally associated with women, but men have too. The charecteristics of this personally group, according to Fisher, a leading researcher in this fiel, is 

March 22, 2016

Evidence coming from multiple sources, AFP and BBC, suggest that they laanta buuro camp may have been at least partially overrun; as a result, number of vichcles and other war materials may have been taken and paraded. 

If this so, then it is consistent with working stratigy that Shebab has noted, namely attack military camps in large numbers using suicide vichcles and take the provisions containing there and kill as many soldiers as possible. Counter stratigy to this has yet to succeed, even though numerous attempts to do the same in the AMISOM camps outside Mogadishi did not succeed. 

Nimber of factors allow this to happen.

First, disengaged general population, so that Shebab can travel among them with the confidence that they will be attacked or at minimum that they will not be notified to relevent authorities. 

second, capacity for travel in large numbers in areas controlled by the government without being noticed.

Third, AMISOM attecks of Shebab preserves their war making capacities. 

Fourth, they retain the freedom of movement within government controlled areas. 

Somalia's Federal Government and Sea and Air Ports

Somalia's Federal Government has appointed new manager for Aden Adde International Airport in Mogadishu. 

Few weeks ago another airport manager was fired and another appointed. This firing and appointing was not done by the federal government by the Jubbaland Adminstration. 

The firing and appointment was done by the Prime Minister of FRS. The question is the PM's authority limited to Mogadishu or is he going to do the for Bosaso International airport? How about the Kismayo airport. The answer is no. Jubbaland Adminstration has already appointed a manager for the airport. This is a contrary to the Adis Ababa agreement [1].

Another relevant matter is the use of revenues. The revenue from Jubbaland ports, the agreement stipulates shall be used exclusively for Jubbaland, until such time as national plan for taxation is worked out. Simalar provision does not exist for Banadir region. 

In the state of MInisota, the airport is managed by Metropoltian Airport Commission, whose has 14 commissioners and a chair person. The chair person is appointed by the Governor of MN.

[1]http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2013/Aug/40895/agreement_between_the_federal_government_of_somalia_and_jubba_delegation.aspx

March 15, 2026

AMISOM now needs protection from Shebab hence US intervention; how can they defend Shebab fine government installations to which they were mandated and the general population too? 

Shebab, as any other insurgent group needs motivation and opportunities to become seccessfull or at least try so. Ethiopia and Kenya are goving Shebab motivations. Many people may support Shebab who others would either have been indifferent or who have fought them? 

Injustice and Puntland 

March 13, 2016

The US airstrikes against Shebab as some have suggested and it clear to any one who pays attention, the reason being  Somalia's army and 22,000 strong force were not enough to defeat an estimated no more than 5,000 Shebab soldiers with less equipment and US has to intervene using manned and unmanned aircrafts, is due to, to Ethio-Kenyan interventions under AMISOM.m

Heritage report analysis of its key findings 

1- Amisom has made sucrifices in its fight against Shebab and its stabilization of Somalia, though figures of the casualties remain officially undisclosed. Somalis especially those southern and central Somalia, especially those around Mogadishu should appreciate the sucrifices made by AMISOM and be thankful to them eternally.

2- AMISOM, the report says, cannot defeat Shebab without the support of Somali population and an inclusive, professional national security forces, NSF. Somalia's national army, it adds, is not in a position to lead the fight against Shebab. The report blames what it calls 'protracted wrangling' of Somalia's political elites for making it impossible to build NSF, but fails also to blame, also,  the Ethio-Kenyan political and military influence in AMISOM  and their generally perceived hostile attitude to professional Somali Security Forces taking charge. This was one of the reasons why front line states were not allowed to become part of AMISOM. Think of India acting as peacekeeper in Pakistan and allowing Pakistani security forces to take charge of Pakistan. Somalis can still take charge of their country regardless what the neighboring countries are up to. 

The addition of Ethiopia and Kenya have had many effects. First, many people see not much a difference between Ethio-Kenyan forces and Shebab. As a result, they have lost enthusiasm for fighting Shebab. 

Second, Shebab have portrayed  them as colonizers who already colonize Somali population against their will and will do the same for the Somalis in the Republic. This resonates with many Somalis 

For these two reasons, Shebab was empowered and their opponents disempowered. 

They also continue to create local client states thereby de-legitimizing the entir anti-Shebab forces in Somalia as collaborators of Somalia's historical enemies. 

Study Istanbul Declaration on Somalia.

Organized by the Government of the Republic of Turkey, and co-chaired by the President of Somalia and the UN Deputy Secretary-General, H.E. Mr. Jan Eliasson, the High-Level Partnership Forum (HLPF) on Somalia was held this week (February23-24, 2016) in Istanbul, Turkey with the theme "Focusing on Progress in Somalia". The Forum which reviewed Somalia's progress in the political, security and economic sectors aimed at addressing the challenges that the country faces in the implementation of speedy peace and state-building processes brought together key international partners and 200 Representatives from 54 countries and 11 international organizations, leaders of the Somali Federal Government and Interim Regional Administrations. This year's forum followed the previous meetings held in Copenhagen in 2014 and Mogadishu in 2015.

Commending the progress in Somalia and referring to the country's political, security and development agenda, the President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in his opening remarks said, "As you all know, Somalia is going through a critical period. … On this rocky road, we need to support Somalia and never leave [Somalis] in the lurch".

Taking note of the fact that stability is vital for Somalia progress, Erdoğan called for the implementation of key 2016 milestones. Somalia's security needs are being addressed in efforts to seek tangible solutions to fight al-Shabaab terrorist activities in the country. Al-Shabaab is an al-Qaeda-linked militant group and was among the topics covered throughout the forum. He said, "I believe that the improvements that we will make for easing our Somali brothers' daily lives and increasing their welfare will also contribute to the country disposing of its terror problem. Essentially, the thing that lies under the success of the Turkish model in Somalia, which you all watch with interest, is our acting with this mentality. We also expect international cooperatives to support Somalia with the same attitude". Explaining that Turkey shouldered the country's reconstruction process through universities, orphanages, roads, hospitals and even street lamps that are put into service through humanitarian institutions, Erdoğan noted, "We will continue our work until Somalia finds tranquility and becomes a peaceful, stable country with the cooperation of the international community and regional countries, hopefully."

Stressing on the tremendous progress Somalia has made over the last few years, Deputy- Secretary General of the United Nations. Jan Eliasson said Somalia once mired in a conflict has now better functioning governance on relative terms. As this year marks the end of the Somalia Compact, and the mandate of the first Federal Institutions formed under Somalia's 2012 Provisional Constitution closes in, the Deputy- Secretary General said, "Yet, 2016 is not a finish line," noting that the country had tough challenges ahead. The international community must move beyond crisis management and work together towards maximizing stronger partnership for sustainable peace and development, while also ensuring the rule of law, and respect for human rights. He noted Somalis have worked hard over the past four years to build the foundations of a new federal, democratic state. Jan Eliasson stressed on the importance of forging a visible strategy which he said was crucial in the promotion of peace and state building in the country. On Somalia election 2016, the Deputy–Secretary General commend the Federal Government's decision of working on a viable electoral model, particularly its commitment to make sure that women would make up 30 per cent of the seats in the new Parliament. In all these, the Deputy–Secretary General urged all national and international stakeholders to support implementation of such a decision which should come in line with the Mogadishu Declaration and Security Council resolution 2232, adding that a secure, fair and transparent electoral process held on time would do much to sustain confidence in the process of Somalia's transformation.

The President of the Federal Republic of Somalia Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, detailed the positive achievements in the country, such as recovering most of Somalia from al-Shabaab, subsequently working to defeat extremism on its own soil, building institutions within all but one of the federal member states and forming the National Independent Commission along with the ongoing review of the Constitution and the upcoming action plan for the electoral process. He said, "The future of Somalia is embedded in democracy and will only be secured through inclusivity, diversity and equal access to democracy". The President however stressed on the significance of the continued assistance of every Somali and of the international community for the promotion of sustainable peace and development in the country.

A high level Ethiopian Delegation headed by State Minster of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Taye Aske-Selassie attended the High Level Partnership Forum on Somalia. Ethiopia is one of the key `players in the process of bringing sustainable peace and development in the region and its  participation in this ministerial meeting affirmed the country's longstanding commitment to supporting international efforts towards a more stable, peaceful and resilient Somalia. During the event, State Minster Ambassador Taye Aske-Selassie had made it clear that Ethiopia remains committed to consolidate its endeavor towards bringing lasting peace and stability in Somalia. He said the political landscape of Somalia has fundamentally changed in the last four years. Since the establishment of an internationally recognized government under the leadership of Hassan Sheik Mohammed in September 2012, Ambassador Taye said, "All witnessed the formation of three regional administrations and we are looking forward to the formation of one regional and one city administration in the coming months". According to the state minster what is more significant in terms of political change in the last three and half years is the transformation of the violent political culture into civil, peaceful and legal political mode of engagement. Ambassador Taye however added that the problem in the security sector has the potential to undermine all the political achievements. He said unless the security sector is strengthened, all our political and stabilization plans will be brought into distress. Moreover, H.E Ambassador Taye said, "The strategy is never wait for a deadly enemy to come and attack. Chase it! Isolate it, contain, degrade and finally eliminate it!" The state Minster stressed that this required commitment and resilience resource, potential will and support. It should be underlined that this is a strategic task that required a coordinated plan and action of all partners; and Ambassador Taye finally underlined, "While we are in charge of respective countries we have to make sure that we support the cause of building of a strong and vibrant Somalia."

The High Level Partnership Forum in its communiqué welcomed the second annual progress report of the New Deal Somali Compact and commended the detailed Compact Review process, the joint analysis of achievements and the challenges in the implementation, as well as identification of milestones for 2016. It also welcomed Somalia's progress in many areas and called for continued engagement and provision of assistance. Noting that the constitutionally-mandated terms of the Federal Government and Parliament close in, the communiqué noted 2016 was a decisive year for Somalia. Mindful of the fact that the one-person one-vote elections would not be possible this year, it welcomed the inclusive and participatory processes that helped parties agree on the key principles and actions of the 2016 electoral process in line with the ‘Mogadishu Declaration' of 16 December 2015. The communiqué further underlined that there must not be any impediments to the timely implementation of the electoral process, including ensuring freedom of expression, and making sure that the constitutionally-mandated term limits of the legislature and executive are observed. Accordingly, it called for parties to work for an inclusive 2016 Electoral Process Implementation Plan and the development of the 2020 Roadmap. On the prospects of ensuring universal suffrage, the forum also stressed on the importance of setting clear political vision and path and urged all stakeholders to come to terms with a view to consolidate twin-track planning in support of a one-person one-vote electoral model, one that is overseen by a workable National Independent Electoral Commission by 2020.

s

March 3, 2016

Aswj and Galmudug are reported fighting, after an officer defected fought against ASWJ and Galmudug joined to fight.

FGS asked Ethioipia to mediate, as confirmed by various sources; it appears that did not happen.

Some claim Ethiopia supports ASWJ. Some Somalis were incorporated with Ethiopia against their will, and some chose to fight that including Somalia's former Socialist Government of Mohamed Siad Barre. The current constitution of Ethiopia allows, in theory, for regions to secede from Ethiopia, should do they choose so. 

The current rulers of Ethiopia, Tigray, a monitory group, previously fought the right of self-determination, but finally chose to stay becaus they were now rulers of Ethiopia. 

They may renew their bid for self-determination if they are threatened by more numerous groups such as Amahara and possibily Oromo. 

In any case, problems exist between Ethiopia and Somalia that will make it difficult for any Ethiopian ruler to work towards more unified Somalia because such entity will support the right of the Somali people in Ethiopia to determine their political fate be to to stay as free and equal or to secede and form state or do as they see proper.

Their inclusion therefore in AMISOM was strategic mistake because it gives its opponents, Shebab legitimacy because they fighting against a state that rules some Somalis by force not by consent.

It ought to be noted also that Ethioipa as whole is living unde the tyranny of a TPLF /EPDRF. It is unfortunate turn of events that people who fought for freedom and now oppressing now denying others similar yearning, potentially putting themselves in the position of Colenel Mengestu Haile Marriam, even though they are better than him. 

Those who wish to see peace in Horn of Africa ought to support democratization in Ethiopia and in Somalia, while supporting the security forces of Somalia enough to to defeat Shebab. 

February 29, 2016

Somalia and its allies against Shebab are on one hand empowering them, increasing the troops from countries which Somalia has unresolved border issues, and o another they are fighting them, making it difficult to defeat them. The effect is Shebab with legitimacy, able to recruit recruits and money, and use them first and foremost agains Somalia's government and civilian population. 

I 

Somalia February 28, 2016

Somalia's minister of national security asked the parliement to pass anti-terrorism Bill which was sitting with the Federal Parliement for some time now. 

If it is true, it sends clear message, security is not our priority. 

The President, the Prime Minister as well as the Speaker were away while this has happened, and they did not return to deal with this matter urgently. 

If the security needed bills are not passed the parliement must meet urgently and pass the laws.

The Attorney General and the Minister for National Defense both stated that the security forces are unable to do their job in the absense of relevant laws. 

There is absense of urgency.

This is consistent with what we have seen before acceptance of colleteral damage, followed by indifference, no investigations what has happened, what could have been done differently and what could be done in the future.

Banadir Regional Adminstration and Security 

National Security and Intellegence services cheif said that commanders of the police and Intellegence of Mogadishu will come under the mayor of Mogadishu who is also the Governor of Banadir region. There was decree produced by Abdiwali Sheikh Ahmed, a former Prime Minister that was not implemented for reasons that were not clear.

The Terrorism Bill

This bill was passed by the council of Ministers on May 14, 2015. Almost 10 months have passed and the parliement did not pass the bill.

The bill was tabled in Somalia's Federal Parliement on July 25, 2015, but was not passed yet, as of now, February 2016.

Puntland parliement has anti terrorism law in July, 2010. This suggests Mogadishu has suffered because it lacked a regional parliement that cares about its security enough to pass laws needed to protect the people of the town or the region. 

Somalia 02272916

Things that Somalia's Government can do.

Mogadishu more Terror Attacks

More resources ought to be dedicated to address the issue.

1- More intelligence officers in the streets 

2- mobile unit in wash locality, districts consist of four localities; there are about 17 districts in Mogadishu, about 68 units that can rapidly respond to elements using mortars to attack the city. Mortar units ought to be formed to solve this matter. The Governement took more steps to prevent airport terror, so the same ought be done. 

The Clip

Watch the clip of Somali Cable 

There is clip showing the president saying that bad news during the war is enavitable, in response to civilian casualties alleged to have been committed by Kenya's Air strikes, suggesting the President lacks human rights protection sense: compensate civilian and property damages. He also lacked information about what has happened suggesting his intelligence chiefs did not update him about what has happened. 

It is also possible that the clip that may have been cut, so that the part that he talks about situation is removed.

Money

From Government offices to ministeries of labor, education, health and reconstruction and so on; this will also reduce the economic and social conditions that contribute to the use of violence as a means of earning a living.

Daily journaling is needed to generate  more ideas that may contribute to the peace and security in Somalia. 

Somalia 02, 26,2016

Just reports coming from Somalia state, attacks on peace garden and a Hotel. Previously, there was an attack on restaurants at the beach. So, systematic targeting of civilians, disregard of all forms of respect to the sanctity of life. Is this the Sharia they want to implement in Somalia.

Opportunities

They have opprtunities to secure cars, explosives, gather information and park them in public places; they being housed and funded; who does that? Why not publish the identities of the attackers, cars used who owned them? Where do they assemble? 

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Mortars landed around Somalia's Presidential Palace, killing and wounding soldiers as well as civilians. 

Nisa reported the casualties, and what they did about it.

Whoever carried out did so during midday day from Mogadishu. 

Somalia's President Mentions the death of 200 soldiers and Kenya denies. Where is his source of information, was a question? Is he going to answer or accept of stating incorrect information or remain silent because he has access to classified information? 

Somalia's has strange views of human rights regims

Things that you don't like will happen; this is the position of milliary commanders in 2010; much has changed, but not the president; he civilian casualties are part of the war,;

What he did not do was first collect information to speak in an informed fashion, second asses what options are available since he is the president of the Republic and his first responsibility is the protection of the citizens of Somalia, including compensating lives and properties. No that is what he did. Unless the clip was cut.

What the president of Jubbaland did was different; he was well informed about what he happen; he defined reports of people being killed in large numbers. 

He also said Kenya and Ethiopia are in Ethiopia for no other reason than to save Somalia. Wiki leaks differs: Kenya lobbied for Jubbaland creation and Ethiopia intervened the elections of Southwest.

Somalia's Politics

One famous commentator commented about event in emotional manner defending people who have representatives to defend, without having evidence to do so, raising concerns of his credibility.

Somalia's parliement is meeting a the provisional constitution which will determine the status of Mogadisho in federated Somalia.

Banadir Regional Administration is focused on signs in the streets and the language they are written while streets are scenes of car explosions.

Is he defending Shebab, Somaliland or Dahabshill? If so, does he has an evidence to so so?

The comment and its emotional tone raises worrying concerns about his motif.

It could be outburst.

Puntland Educational Support  

How about other regions? Does the new deal support other educational facilities I in Somalia. I have no time to study if the money given to Somalia fairly distributed.

The same applies to how budget is appropriated and collected in the first place. 

Mogadishu accommodates and pays for the parliamentary meeting yet no one representing its interest were present when future constitution of Somalia was the subject of debate. Wait Mogadishu will also pay, good portion, upper house that wil elect the president of Somalia September this year, but Mogaodhu will not not have a seat because all seat, 54, has been distributed. The people who live in the city chosen to remain silent, reasons remain unknown. 

Puntland and Banadir: Political Fates

A man who is using the name of the Presiident of the Puntlans region of Somalia claims that the people of Puntland fade three options when it comes the electoral model for Somalia:

1- To secede from Somalia as Somaliland attempted, and consult about our fate 

2- To negotiate what International Community is driving 

3- To refuse what the International Community is driving.

If option one is taken will put the fate the Puntland in the same basket as Somaliland. Both of these entities will face anti-secessionist actors.

If option too is taken Puntlans may secure more seats in the lower parliament and thus have greater political  power that will be used to elect a President, since both houses, upper and lower parliament will elect a President. The President will then select Prime Minster and then the Prime Minister will select Ministers and assistant ministers. The two houses will play a greater role in both elections and selections. Add this list to the appointment of ambassadors and security commanders and so on.

If Puntlans refuses, then the process will go on, leading actually to the first option, Puntland choosing to secede because of its irrelevancy to the political process. 

Rejection of 4.5 may be seen, in part, as a bargaining chip to secure more power. 

On the other hand, it is unfair to say Puntland should get the same seats as Somaliland gets. If so, then it may secede and still get the same seats that it is getting now in the upper parliement, as Somaliland does, as well as ministers, ambassadors, commanders and so on. There is no incentive to stay. 

Banadir region whose population may be close to that of Puntland or half of it, let us say for the sake of argument, [1]  is not in a position to negotiate with the Federal Governement. No bargaining chip. The Federal Government uses Banadir as a bargaining chip and yet says it is not going to get seats in the upper house. Many people as can be guaged by social media discussions are upset with it but they lack mechanism to address these grievances. The grievance, therefore, festers.

[1] 2014  population estimation http://somaliangoconsortium.org/docs/key/33/2014/1412919285.pdf

Somalia: Notes and Insights

Somalia's President in Munich,

Germany, to attend a security meeting; A twitter account for Villa Somalia  has posted pictures of the Presidnet in a Mosque and in meetings with other digtnotiries. 

Puntland

This position[1] paper states the position of Puntland, as it claims. It has been issued by Ali Haji Warsame. 

The most prominent position is that of rejection of 4.5 formula as a formula for distributing the seats of the lower parliament. 

[1] http://puntlandi.com/puntland-political-position-paper-february-10-2016/