March 22, 2016

Evidence coming from multiple sources, AFP and BBC, suggest that they laanta buuro camp may have been at least partially overrun; as a result, number of vichcles and other war materials may have been taken and paraded. 

If this so, then it is consistent with working stratigy that Shebab has noted, namely attack military camps in large numbers using suicide vichcles and take the provisions containing there and kill as many soldiers as possible. Counter stratigy to this has yet to succeed, even though numerous attempts to do the same in the AMISOM camps outside Mogadishi did not succeed. 

Nimber of factors allow this to happen.

First, disengaged general population, so that Shebab can travel among them with the confidence that they will be attacked or at minimum that they will not be notified to relevent authorities. 

second, capacity for travel in large numbers in areas controlled by the government without being noticed.

Third, AMISOM attecks of Shebab preserves their war making capacities. 

Fourth, they retain the freedom of movement within government controlled areas.