March 13, 2016

The US airstrikes against Shebab as some have suggested and it clear to any one who pays attention, the reason being  Somalia's army and 22,000 strong force were not enough to defeat an estimated no more than 5,000 Shebab soldiers with less equipment and US has to intervene using manned and unmanned aircrafts, is due to, to Ethio-Kenyan interventions under AMISOM.m

Heritage report analysis of its key findings 

1- Amisom has made sucrifices in its fight against Shebab and its stabilization of Somalia, though figures of the casualties remain officially undisclosed. Somalis especially those southern and central Somalia, especially those around Mogadishu should appreciate the sucrifices made by AMISOM and be thankful to them eternally.

2- AMISOM, the report says, cannot defeat Shebab without the support of Somali population and an inclusive, professional national security forces, NSF. Somalia's national army, it adds, is not in a position to lead the fight against Shebab. The report blames what it calls 'protracted wrangling' of Somalia's political elites for making it impossible to build NSF, but fails also to blame, also,  the Ethio-Kenyan political and military influence in AMISOM  and their generally perceived hostile attitude to professional Somali Security Forces taking charge. This was one of the reasons why front line states were not allowed to become part of AMISOM. Think of India acting as peacekeeper in Pakistan and allowing Pakistani security forces to take charge of Pakistan. Somalis can still take charge of their country regardless what the neighboring countries are up to. 

The addition of Ethiopia and Kenya have had many effects. First, many people see not much a difference between Ethio-Kenyan forces and Shebab. As a result, they have lost enthusiasm for fighting Shebab. 

Second, Shebab have portrayed  them as colonizers who already colonize Somali population against their will and will do the same for the Somalis in the Republic. This resonates with many Somalis 

For these two reasons, Shebab was empowered and their opponents disempowered. 

They also continue to create local client states thereby de-legitimizing the entir anti-Shebab forces in Somalia as collaborators of Somalia's historical enemies.