Wednesday, March 2, 2016

March 3, 2016

Aswj and Galmudug are reported fighting, after an officer defected fought against ASWJ and Galmudug joined to fight.

FGS asked Ethioipia to mediate, as confirmed by various sources; it appears that did not happen.

Some claim Ethiopia supports ASWJ. Some Somalis were incorporated with Ethiopia against their will, and some chose to fight that including Somalia's former Socialist Government of Mohamed Siad Barre. The current constitution of Ethiopia allows, in theory, for regions to secede from Ethiopia, should do they choose so. 

The current rulers of Ethiopia, Tigray, a monitory group, previously fought the right of self-determination, but finally chose to stay becaus they were now rulers of Ethiopia. 

They may renew their bid for self-determination if they are threatened by more numerous groups such as Amahara and possibily Oromo. 

In any case, problems exist between Ethiopia and Somalia that will make it difficult for any Ethiopian ruler to work towards more unified Somalia because such entity will support the right of the Somali people in Ethiopia to determine their political fate be to to stay as free and equal or to secede and form state or do as they see proper.

Their inclusion therefore in AMISOM was strategic mistake because it gives its opponents, Shebab legitimacy because they fighting against a state that rules some Somalis by force not by consent.

It ought to be noted also that Ethioipa as whole is living unde the tyranny of a TPLF /EPDRF. It is unfortunate turn of events that people who fought for freedom and now oppressing now denying others similar yearning, potentially putting themselves in the position of Colenel Mengestu Haile Marriam, even though they are better than him. 

Those who wish to see peace in Horn of Africa ought to support democratization in Ethiopia and in Somalia, while supporting the security forces of Somalia enough to to defeat Shebab. 



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