1- To secede from Somalia as Somaliland attempted, and consult about our fate
2- To negotiate what International Community is driving
3- To refuse what the International Community is driving.
If option one is taken will put the fate the Puntland in the same basket as Somaliland. Both of these entities will face anti-secessionist actors.
If option too is taken Puntlans may secure more seats in the lower parliament and thus have greater political power that will be used to elect a President, since both houses, upper and lower parliament will elect a President. The President will then select Prime Minster and then the Prime Minister will select Ministers and assistant ministers. The two houses will play a greater role in both elections and selections. Add this list to the appointment of ambassadors and security commanders and so on.
If Puntlans refuses, then the process will go on, leading actually to the first option, Puntland choosing to secede because of its irrelevancy to the political process.
Rejection of 4.5 may be seen, in part, as a bargaining chip to secure more power.
On the other hand, it is unfair to say Puntland should get the same seats as Somaliland gets. If so, then it may secede and still get the same seats that it is getting now in the upper parliement, as Somaliland does, as well as ministers, ambassadors, commanders and so on. There is no incentive to stay.
Banadir region whose population may be close to that of Puntland or half of it, let us say for the sake of argument, [1] is not in a position to negotiate with the Federal Governement. No bargaining chip. The Federal Government uses Banadir as a bargaining chip and yet says it is not going to get seats in the upper house. Many people as can be guaged by social media discussions are upset with it but they lack mechanism to address these grievances. The grievance, therefore, festers.
[1] 2014 population estimation http://somaliangoconsortium.org/docs/key/33/2014/1412919285.pdf
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