February 29, 2016

Somalia and its allies against Shebab are on one hand empowering them, increasing the troops from countries which Somalia has unresolved border issues, and o another they are fighting them, making it difficult to defeat them. The effect is Shebab with legitimacy, able to recruit recruits and money, and use them first and foremost agains Somalia's government and civilian population. 

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Somalia February 28, 2016

Somalia's minister of national security asked the parliement to pass anti-terrorism Bill which was sitting with the Federal Parliement for some time now. 

If it is true, it sends clear message, security is not our priority. 

The President, the Prime Minister as well as the Speaker were away while this has happened, and they did not return to deal with this matter urgently. 

If the security needed bills are not passed the parliement must meet urgently and pass the laws.

The Attorney General and the Minister for National Defense both stated that the security forces are unable to do their job in the absense of relevant laws. 

There is absense of urgency.

This is consistent with what we have seen before acceptance of colleteral damage, followed by indifference, no investigations what has happened, what could have been done differently and what could be done in the future.

Banadir Regional Adminstration and Security 

National Security and Intellegence services cheif said that commanders of the police and Intellegence of Mogadishu will come under the mayor of Mogadishu who is also the Governor of Banadir region. There was decree produced by Abdiwali Sheikh Ahmed, a former Prime Minister that was not implemented for reasons that were not clear.

The Terrorism Bill

This bill was passed by the council of Ministers on May 14, 2015. Almost 10 months have passed and the parliement did not pass the bill.

The bill was tabled in Somalia's Federal Parliement on July 25, 2015, but was not passed yet, as of now, February 2016.

Puntland parliement has anti terrorism law in July, 2010. This suggests Mogadishu has suffered because it lacked a regional parliement that cares about its security enough to pass laws needed to protect the people of the town or the region. 

Somalia 02272916

Things that Somalia's Government can do.

Mogadishu more Terror Attacks

More resources ought to be dedicated to address the issue.

1- More intelligence officers in the streets 

2- mobile unit in wash locality, districts consist of four localities; there are about 17 districts in Mogadishu, about 68 units that can rapidly respond to elements using mortars to attack the city. Mortar units ought to be formed to solve this matter. The Governement took more steps to prevent airport terror, so the same ought be done. 

The Clip

Watch the clip of Somali Cable 

There is clip showing the president saying that bad news during the war is enavitable, in response to civilian casualties alleged to have been committed by Kenya's Air strikes, suggesting the President lacks human rights protection sense: compensate civilian and property damages. He also lacked information about what has happened suggesting his intelligence chiefs did not update him about what has happened. 

It is also possible that the clip that may have been cut, so that the part that he talks about situation is removed.

Money

From Government offices to ministeries of labor, education, health and reconstruction and so on; this will also reduce the economic and social conditions that contribute to the use of violence as a means of earning a living.

Daily journaling is needed to generate  more ideas that may contribute to the peace and security in Somalia. 

Somalia 02, 26,2016

Just reports coming from Somalia state, attacks on peace garden and a Hotel. Previously, there was an attack on restaurants at the beach. So, systematic targeting of civilians, disregard of all forms of respect to the sanctity of life. Is this the Sharia they want to implement in Somalia.

Opportunities

They have opprtunities to secure cars, explosives, gather information and park them in public places; they being housed and funded; who does that? Why not publish the identities of the attackers, cars used who owned them? Where do they assemble? 

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Mortars landed around Somalia's Presidential Palace, killing and wounding soldiers as well as civilians. 

Nisa reported the casualties, and what they did about it.

Whoever carried out did so during midday day from Mogadishu. 

Somalia's President Mentions the death of 200 soldiers and Kenya denies. Where is his source of information, was a question? Is he going to answer or accept of stating incorrect information or remain silent because he has access to classified information? 

Somalia's has strange views of human rights regims

Things that you don't like will happen; this is the position of milliary commanders in 2010; much has changed, but not the president; he civilian casualties are part of the war,;

What he did not do was first collect information to speak in an informed fashion, second asses what options are available since he is the president of the Republic and his first responsibility is the protection of the citizens of Somalia, including compensating lives and properties. No that is what he did. Unless the clip was cut.

What the president of Jubbaland did was different; he was well informed about what he happen; he defined reports of people being killed in large numbers. 

He also said Kenya and Ethiopia are in Ethiopia for no other reason than to save Somalia. Wiki leaks differs: Kenya lobbied for Jubbaland creation and Ethiopia intervened the elections of Southwest.

Somalia's Politics

One famous commentator commented about event in emotional manner defending people who have representatives to defend, without having evidence to do so, raising concerns of his credibility.

Somalia's parliement is meeting a the provisional constitution which will determine the status of Mogadisho in federated Somalia.

Banadir Regional Administration is focused on signs in the streets and the language they are written while streets are scenes of car explosions.

Is he defending Shebab, Somaliland or Dahabshill? If so, does he has an evidence to so so?

The comment and its emotional tone raises worrying concerns about his motif.

It could be outburst.

Puntland Educational Support  

How about other regions? Does the new deal support other educational facilities I in Somalia. I have no time to study if the money given to Somalia fairly distributed.

The same applies to how budget is appropriated and collected in the first place. 

Mogadishu accommodates and pays for the parliamentary meeting yet no one representing its interest were present when future constitution of Somalia was the subject of debate. Wait Mogadishu will also pay, good portion, upper house that wil elect the president of Somalia September this year, but Mogaodhu will not not have a seat because all seat, 54, has been distributed. The people who live in the city chosen to remain silent, reasons remain unknown. 

Puntland and Banadir: Political Fates

A man who is using the name of the Presiident of the Puntlans region of Somalia claims that the people of Puntland fade three options when it comes the electoral model for Somalia:

1- To secede from Somalia as Somaliland attempted, and consult about our fate 

2- To negotiate what International Community is driving 

3- To refuse what the International Community is driving.

If option one is taken will put the fate the Puntland in the same basket as Somaliland. Both of these entities will face anti-secessionist actors.

If option too is taken Puntlans may secure more seats in the lower parliament and thus have greater political  power that will be used to elect a President, since both houses, upper and lower parliament will elect a President. The President will then select Prime Minster and then the Prime Minister will select Ministers and assistant ministers. The two houses will play a greater role in both elections and selections. Add this list to the appointment of ambassadors and security commanders and so on.

If Puntlans refuses, then the process will go on, leading actually to the first option, Puntland choosing to secede because of its irrelevancy to the political process. 

Rejection of 4.5 may be seen, in part, as a bargaining chip to secure more power. 

On the other hand, it is unfair to say Puntland should get the same seats as Somaliland gets. If so, then it may secede and still get the same seats that it is getting now in the upper parliement, as Somaliland does, as well as ministers, ambassadors, commanders and so on. There is no incentive to stay. 

Banadir region whose population may be close to that of Puntland or half of it, let us say for the sake of argument, [1]  is not in a position to negotiate with the Federal Governement. No bargaining chip. The Federal Government uses Banadir as a bargaining chip and yet says it is not going to get seats in the upper house. Many people as can be guaged by social media discussions are upset with it but they lack mechanism to address these grievances. The grievance, therefore, festers.

[1] 2014  population estimation http://somaliangoconsortium.org/docs/key/33/2014/1412919285.pdf

Somalia: Notes and Insights

Somalia's President in Munich,

Germany, to attend a security meeting; A twitter account for Villa Somalia  has posted pictures of the Presidnet in a Mosque and in meetings with other digtnotiries. 

Puntland

This position[1] paper states the position of Puntland, as it claims. It has been issued by Ali Haji Warsame. 

The most prominent position is that of rejection of 4.5 formula as a formula for distributing the seats of the lower parliament. 

[1] http://puntlandi.com/puntland-political-position-paper-february-10-2016/