Study Istanbul Declaration on Somalia.

Organized by the Government of the Republic of Turkey, and co-chaired by the President of Somalia and the UN Deputy Secretary-General, H.E. Mr. Jan Eliasson, the High-Level Partnership Forum (HLPF) on Somalia was held this week (February23-24, 2016) in Istanbul, Turkey with the theme "Focusing on Progress in Somalia". The Forum which reviewed Somalia's progress in the political, security and economic sectors aimed at addressing the challenges that the country faces in the implementation of speedy peace and state-building processes brought together key international partners and 200 Representatives from 54 countries and 11 international organizations, leaders of the Somali Federal Government and Interim Regional Administrations. This year's forum followed the previous meetings held in Copenhagen in 2014 and Mogadishu in 2015.

Commending the progress in Somalia and referring to the country's political, security and development agenda, the President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in his opening remarks said, "As you all know, Somalia is going through a critical period. … On this rocky road, we need to support Somalia and never leave [Somalis] in the lurch".

Taking note of the fact that stability is vital for Somalia progress, Erdoğan called for the implementation of key 2016 milestones. Somalia's security needs are being addressed in efforts to seek tangible solutions to fight al-Shabaab terrorist activities in the country. Al-Shabaab is an al-Qaeda-linked militant group and was among the topics covered throughout the forum. He said, "I believe that the improvements that we will make for easing our Somali brothers' daily lives and increasing their welfare will also contribute to the country disposing of its terror problem. Essentially, the thing that lies under the success of the Turkish model in Somalia, which you all watch with interest, is our acting with this mentality. We also expect international cooperatives to support Somalia with the same attitude". Explaining that Turkey shouldered the country's reconstruction process through universities, orphanages, roads, hospitals and even street lamps that are put into service through humanitarian institutions, Erdoğan noted, "We will continue our work until Somalia finds tranquility and becomes a peaceful, stable country with the cooperation of the international community and regional countries, hopefully."

Stressing on the tremendous progress Somalia has made over the last few years, Deputy- Secretary General of the United Nations. Jan Eliasson said Somalia once mired in a conflict has now better functioning governance on relative terms. As this year marks the end of the Somalia Compact, and the mandate of the first Federal Institutions formed under Somalia's 2012 Provisional Constitution closes in, the Deputy- Secretary General said, "Yet, 2016 is not a finish line," noting that the country had tough challenges ahead. The international community must move beyond crisis management and work together towards maximizing stronger partnership for sustainable peace and development, while also ensuring the rule of law, and respect for human rights. He noted Somalis have worked hard over the past four years to build the foundations of a new federal, democratic state. Jan Eliasson stressed on the importance of forging a visible strategy which he said was crucial in the promotion of peace and state building in the country. On Somalia election 2016, the Deputy–Secretary General commend the Federal Government's decision of working on a viable electoral model, particularly its commitment to make sure that women would make up 30 per cent of the seats in the new Parliament. In all these, the Deputy–Secretary General urged all national and international stakeholders to support implementation of such a decision which should come in line with the Mogadishu Declaration and Security Council resolution 2232, adding that a secure, fair and transparent electoral process held on time would do much to sustain confidence in the process of Somalia's transformation.

The President of the Federal Republic of Somalia Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, detailed the positive achievements in the country, such as recovering most of Somalia from al-Shabaab, subsequently working to defeat extremism on its own soil, building institutions within all but one of the federal member states and forming the National Independent Commission along with the ongoing review of the Constitution and the upcoming action plan for the electoral process. He said, "The future of Somalia is embedded in democracy and will only be secured through inclusivity, diversity and equal access to democracy". The President however stressed on the significance of the continued assistance of every Somali and of the international community for the promotion of sustainable peace and development in the country.

A high level Ethiopian Delegation headed by State Minster of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Taye Aske-Selassie attended the High Level Partnership Forum on Somalia. Ethiopia is one of the key `players in the process of bringing sustainable peace and development in the region and its  participation in this ministerial meeting affirmed the country's longstanding commitment to supporting international efforts towards a more stable, peaceful and resilient Somalia. During the event, State Minster Ambassador Taye Aske-Selassie had made it clear that Ethiopia remains committed to consolidate its endeavor towards bringing lasting peace and stability in Somalia. He said the political landscape of Somalia has fundamentally changed in the last four years. Since the establishment of an internationally recognized government under the leadership of Hassan Sheik Mohammed in September 2012, Ambassador Taye said, "All witnessed the formation of three regional administrations and we are looking forward to the formation of one regional and one city administration in the coming months". According to the state minster what is more significant in terms of political change in the last three and half years is the transformation of the violent political culture into civil, peaceful and legal political mode of engagement. Ambassador Taye however added that the problem in the security sector has the potential to undermine all the political achievements. He said unless the security sector is strengthened, all our political and stabilization plans will be brought into distress. Moreover, H.E Ambassador Taye said, "The strategy is never wait for a deadly enemy to come and attack. Chase it! Isolate it, contain, degrade and finally eliminate it!" The state Minster stressed that this required commitment and resilience resource, potential will and support. It should be underlined that this is a strategic task that required a coordinated plan and action of all partners; and Ambassador Taye finally underlined, "While we are in charge of respective countries we have to make sure that we support the cause of building of a strong and vibrant Somalia."

The High Level Partnership Forum in its communiqué welcomed the second annual progress report of the New Deal Somali Compact and commended the detailed Compact Review process, the joint analysis of achievements and the challenges in the implementation, as well as identification of milestones for 2016. It also welcomed Somalia's progress in many areas and called for continued engagement and provision of assistance. Noting that the constitutionally-mandated terms of the Federal Government and Parliament close in, the communiqué noted 2016 was a decisive year for Somalia. Mindful of the fact that the one-person one-vote elections would not be possible this year, it welcomed the inclusive and participatory processes that helped parties agree on the key principles and actions of the 2016 electoral process in line with the ‘Mogadishu Declaration' of 16 December 2015. The communiqué further underlined that there must not be any impediments to the timely implementation of the electoral process, including ensuring freedom of expression, and making sure that the constitutionally-mandated term limits of the legislature and executive are observed. Accordingly, it called for parties to work for an inclusive 2016 Electoral Process Implementation Plan and the development of the 2020 Roadmap. On the prospects of ensuring universal suffrage, the forum also stressed on the importance of setting clear political vision and path and urged all stakeholders to come to terms with a view to consolidate twin-track planning in support of a one-person one-vote electoral model, one that is overseen by a workable National Independent Electoral Commission by 2020.

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March 3, 2016

Aswj and Galmudug are reported fighting, after an officer defected fought against ASWJ and Galmudug joined to fight.

FGS asked Ethioipia to mediate, as confirmed by various sources; it appears that did not happen.

Some claim Ethiopia supports ASWJ. Some Somalis were incorporated with Ethiopia against their will, and some chose to fight that including Somalia's former Socialist Government of Mohamed Siad Barre. The current constitution of Ethiopia allows, in theory, for regions to secede from Ethiopia, should do they choose so. 

The current rulers of Ethiopia, Tigray, a monitory group, previously fought the right of self-determination, but finally chose to stay becaus they were now rulers of Ethiopia. 

They may renew their bid for self-determination if they are threatened by more numerous groups such as Amahara and possibily Oromo. 

In any case, problems exist between Ethiopia and Somalia that will make it difficult for any Ethiopian ruler to work towards more unified Somalia because such entity will support the right of the Somali people in Ethiopia to determine their political fate be to to stay as free and equal or to secede and form state or do as they see proper.

Their inclusion therefore in AMISOM was strategic mistake because it gives its opponents, Shebab legitimacy because they fighting against a state that rules some Somalis by force not by consent.

It ought to be noted also that Ethioipa as whole is living unde the tyranny of a TPLF /EPDRF. It is unfortunate turn of events that people who fought for freedom and now oppressing now denying others similar yearning, potentially putting themselves in the position of Colenel Mengestu Haile Marriam, even though they are better than him. 

Those who wish to see peace in Horn of Africa ought to support democratization in Ethiopia and in Somalia, while supporting the security forces of Somalia enough to to defeat Shebab. 

February 29, 2016

Somalia and its allies against Shebab are on one hand empowering them, increasing the troops from countries which Somalia has unresolved border issues, and o another they are fighting them, making it difficult to defeat them. The effect is Shebab with legitimacy, able to recruit recruits and money, and use them first and foremost agains Somalia's government and civilian population. 

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Somalia February 28, 2016

Somalia's minister of national security asked the parliement to pass anti-terrorism Bill which was sitting with the Federal Parliement for some time now. 

If it is true, it sends clear message, security is not our priority. 

The President, the Prime Minister as well as the Speaker were away while this has happened, and they did not return to deal with this matter urgently. 

If the security needed bills are not passed the parliement must meet urgently and pass the laws.

The Attorney General and the Minister for National Defense both stated that the security forces are unable to do their job in the absense of relevant laws. 

There is absense of urgency.

This is consistent with what we have seen before acceptance of colleteral damage, followed by indifference, no investigations what has happened, what could have been done differently and what could be done in the future.

Banadir Regional Adminstration and Security 

National Security and Intellegence services cheif said that commanders of the police and Intellegence of Mogadishu will come under the mayor of Mogadishu who is also the Governor of Banadir region. There was decree produced by Abdiwali Sheikh Ahmed, a former Prime Minister that was not implemented for reasons that were not clear.

The Terrorism Bill

This bill was passed by the council of Ministers on May 14, 2015. Almost 10 months have passed and the parliement did not pass the bill.

The bill was tabled in Somalia's Federal Parliement on July 25, 2015, but was not passed yet, as of now, February 2016.

Puntland parliement has anti terrorism law in July, 2010. This suggests Mogadishu has suffered because it lacked a regional parliement that cares about its security enough to pass laws needed to protect the people of the town or the region. 

Somalia 02272916

Things that Somalia's Government can do.

Mogadishu more Terror Attacks

More resources ought to be dedicated to address the issue.

1- More intelligence officers in the streets 

2- mobile unit in wash locality, districts consist of four localities; there are about 17 districts in Mogadishu, about 68 units that can rapidly respond to elements using mortars to attack the city. Mortar units ought to be formed to solve this matter. The Governement took more steps to prevent airport terror, so the same ought be done. 

The Clip

Watch the clip of Somali Cable 

There is clip showing the president saying that bad news during the war is enavitable, in response to civilian casualties alleged to have been committed by Kenya's Air strikes, suggesting the President lacks human rights protection sense: compensate civilian and property damages. He also lacked information about what has happened suggesting his intelligence chiefs did not update him about what has happened. 

It is also possible that the clip that may have been cut, so that the part that he talks about situation is removed.

Money

From Government offices to ministeries of labor, education, health and reconstruction and so on; this will also reduce the economic and social conditions that contribute to the use of violence as a means of earning a living.

Daily journaling is needed to generate  more ideas that may contribute to the peace and security in Somalia. 

Somalia 02, 26,2016

Just reports coming from Somalia state, attacks on peace garden and a Hotel. Previously, there was an attack on restaurants at the beach. So, systematic targeting of civilians, disregard of all forms of respect to the sanctity of life. Is this the Sharia they want to implement in Somalia.

Opportunities

They have opprtunities to secure cars, explosives, gather information and park them in public places; they being housed and funded; who does that? Why not publish the identities of the attackers, cars used who owned them? Where do they assemble? 

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Mortars landed around Somalia's Presidential Palace, killing and wounding soldiers as well as civilians. 

Nisa reported the casualties, and what they did about it.

Whoever carried out did so during midday day from Mogadishu. 

Somalia's President Mentions the death of 200 soldiers and Kenya denies. Where is his source of information, was a question? Is he going to answer or accept of stating incorrect information or remain silent because he has access to classified information? 

Somalia's has strange views of human rights regims

Things that you don't like will happen; this is the position of milliary commanders in 2010; much has changed, but not the president; he civilian casualties are part of the war,;

What he did not do was first collect information to speak in an informed fashion, second asses what options are available since he is the president of the Republic and his first responsibility is the protection of the citizens of Somalia, including compensating lives and properties. No that is what he did. Unless the clip was cut.

What the president of Jubbaland did was different; he was well informed about what he happen; he defined reports of people being killed in large numbers. 

He also said Kenya and Ethiopia are in Ethiopia for no other reason than to save Somalia. Wiki leaks differs: Kenya lobbied for Jubbaland creation and Ethiopia intervened the elections of Southwest.