Warbixintii Kooxda Diiwaangalinta, ama Kuurgalka ee Soomaaliya iyo Ereteriya oo la Jaribay

Warqaddaan aaan ka faalaan doono waxaa qoray nin isku dubarade ka ah kooxda diiwaangalinta arimaha Soomaaliya iyo Ereteriya, KDSE. Erayga af-Ingiriiska ee monitoring erayga ugu fiican oo loo fasiri karo waa diiwaangalin, sababtoo ah kuurgalid kaliya ma aha ee waa u kuurgalid diiwaan galinaysa waxa loo kuurgalay. Waa la igmaday kooxdaan ayadoo la tixraacaayo qaybta 27aad, e go’aanka Golaha Ammaanka, GA 2111 ( 2013).

 

Isku dubaridaha waxaa wax ka qoraaya labo arimood; mid waa mid guud ah oo dib-u-habaynta lagu sameeyay cunaqabatayntii saarnayd wadanka Soomaaliya, oy ku sameeyeen GA, go’aankoodii 2093 ( 2013) iyo 2111 ( 2013). Si gaar ahna isku dubaridaha wuxuu uga hadlaayaa baahi laga rabay inay asturaan oo ku saabsan inay ka warbixiyaan dib-u-hubayta lagu sameeyay cunaqabatayntii saarnayd wadanka Soomaaliya.

 

Baaritaano ay samaysay kooxda, KDSE, oo ku saabsan cunaqabataynta hubka Soomaaliya iyo u kuurgal waxay muraayad u yihiin gunaanadyo horay u dhac ah iyo jihooyin wax u socdaan oo la aqoonsaday.

Qormadaan waa ka soo hordhacday markii la rabay in la keeno, oo ahayd lixda maarso, ee sanadkan. Waxaana jirta inuu golaha ammaanka yeelanaayo wadatashi aan caadi ahayn 21ka bisha  Fibraayo, isla sanadkaan. Sida muuqata shirka aan caadiga ahayn aa la rabay inay arintaan isticmaalaan.

 Kooxda Diiwaangalinta ama u kuur galidda waxay aqoonsadeen mawaadiic iyo arimo khuseeya oo ku saabsan maaraynta hadda ee keydka hubka iyo rasaasata, kuwaasoo farta ku fiiqaaya heer sare oo joogto ah oo ujeedo xun u isticmaalaaya maaraynta iyo qaybinta hubka iyo rasaasta.  

The report that I shall comment on is written by the coordinator for Somalia and Eretria Monitoring Group, SEMG ( hereafter ‘SEMG’). This group was mandated by security council pursuant on relevant resolutions. This is the first part.

The coordinator is writing about two matters; one is a general one regarding the modification of the arms embargo on Somalia and the other one is reporting about t...he modification of the arms embargo on Somalia.
Investigations carried out by the group regarding the arms embargo on Somalia and observations made by the group reflect, according to the coordinator, preliminary conclusions regarding trends identified by the group.

The report was due early in march, this year, but was submitted early, presumably to benefit an informal consultation by the security council in late February.

 

Warar iyo Falanqayn; News and Analysis

HMAS, Howsha Midowga Afrika ee Soomaaliya oo sheegtay in Shebaab rabaan inay xamar ku soo noqdaan, bacdina ka bilaabaan ku dhufo oo ka carar.

Shebaabka markii laga saaray Xamar 2011kii, bishii Agoosto, waa awoodi waayeen inay bilaabaan ku dhufo oo ka carar, sidii ay u awoodeen 2007kii, markii xulufo ay ka tirsanaayeen laga saaray magaalada.

Gaari miinooyin laga soo buuxiyay oo la dhigay dhabarka dambe ee Hoteelka Makka Al-Mukarama aa qarxay; waxaa la sheegay inay labo ilaa afar qof ku dhaawacmeen,

Explosive laden car was parked behind a popular hotel in in Mogadishu, called Maka Al-Mukarama, located in a major road in Mogadishu, with the same name. The hotel used to belong, and possibly still belongs to a former major warlord, Ali Mahdi Mohamed.

An African Union Mission in Somalia, AMISOM, mentioned that Shebab, an insurgent organization in Somalia, aims to return to Mogadishu to start an insurgency in the town as it did when Ethiopians came to the town in 2007. At that time Shebab had the support of Somali people; now, it appears, they don't. That is the decisive factor. It may try to do so, given its desperate situation: suffering string of defeats in the hands of allied forces in parts of southern and central Somalia.

Shebab could not carry out insurgent attacks in in 2011 when they were forcefully removed from the city, as they did in 2007 when Ethiopians removed them from the town.

Warar iyo Falanqayn. News and Analysis of Somalia

Xarun dhexe oo kulmisa laamaha ammaanka qaabilsan oo yeeshay xarun ay ku kala warqaataan, iskuna dubraridaan howlahooda xagga ammaanka aa laga furay magaalada Muqdisho, xarunta wadanka Soomaaliya. Xaruntaan dhismaheeda waxaa qayb ka qaatay Howsha Midowga Afrika ee Soomaaliya, HMAS, AMIOM.

Maxkamadda ciidanka wadanka Soomaaliya oo xukunta maalin ka hor ciidan ka tirsan kuwa xoogga, dil toogasho ah,bacdina waa ku fulisay. Waxaa wax lagu yaabo ah in Xamar laga maqlay hal qof oo Shebaab ah in tiirka la geeyay, meesha maalin walba la maqlo, askar aa la dilay. Macnaheed arintaas. Dhibka ugu badan oo wadanka ka dhaca waxaa gala Shebaab, maxaa loo ciqaabi waayay?

Warbixin dheer oy qortay shabakadda Sabahi waxaa ku sheegay afhayeenka maamulka gobolka Banaadir wax lagu yaabo; wuxuu yiri baaritaan hadda waxaan ku samayn karnaa kaliya isgoysyada, maya xaafadaha; ma kuwaan dhibka wada aa isgoys tagaaya? waa wax lagu yaabo [1].

The author who did not disclose his name; he tells that narratives are hard to change in places like Somalia, foreshadowing a change of a narrative, that author has noticed. So, the mentions one narrative. Let us call it narrative one, N1. N1 says new man was elected as head of Somalia and an offensive is on the way against Shebab.


The author tells this new offensive the new man in office are side shows. There is real show going on. The new man has lost his aura. Why is that? the author tells us that he did due to corruption. The author then goes to supply some evidence for this: what the resigned bank governor said and resignation of the bank governor before this one. The author says these has exposed corruption that is why the president lost his aura.

The author then goes to quote an analyst to support his position.
Now, we expect the author to supply what the real show is, since the President and the current offensive are not the real show.

The following refers to an article that appeared in the Economist in March 14, 2014, titled: The real fight is behind closed doors    

The author now supplies litany of problems that Somalia has, some of them real, such as the limited power of the government, the existence of other centers of power and the lack of agreement to the way forward. Then he says Shebab came back to the town. This is not true: elements of Shebab may have returned to carry out some attacks, but Shebab is not back. If they are back, he should have supplied some evidence that suggests so. The only evidence he supplied is that women have been threatened in some parts of the town to wear veil. Where in the town have women been forced to wear veil? no mention of it.

Now, the author equates the current offensive against Shebab with Ethiopian offensive. It is true, Ethiopians are playing a bigger role; it is true some Somalis, if not most, dislike Ethiopian intervention of Somalia, but the offensive is bigger than an Ethiopian project. Because of his assumption, the author thinks nothing will change. We have a journalist who is able to predict the future.



[1]http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2014/Mar/53593/mogadishu_mayor_s_desire_to_monopolise_benadir_security_raises_concerns.aspx

Warbixin iyo Falanqayn, News and Analysis.

Dagmada Buulo Barde oo la sheegay in Shebaab laga qabsaday, ka dib markii ciidam Soomaali ah, iyo kuwo Itoobiyan iyo Jibuutiyaan ay labo jiho uga yimaadeen. Dagaal aa meesha ka dhacay, bacdina Shebaabka waa ka carareen meesha. Goobo kale oo dhowr ah oo ka tirsan gobolka Hiiraan aa xarakada laga kiciyay maanta. Waxaa ku dhacay jab wayn. Waxaa kaloo jirta inay jirin shicibka Soomaalida ay muujin wax ka xumaansha ah dhibka Shebaab gacmaha Itoobiya ku qabsaday, waayo xarakada Shicibka Soomaalida dhib tiro badan ay u gaysatay.

Howlgal la sheegay in laga sameeyay meel ka tirsan magaalada Xamar khaasatan Dayniile iyo Gubta oo la sheegay in dad wax lagu yeelay. Wararka ka imaanaaya meesha ma aha kuwo si fiican loo xaqiijin karo, laakiin waxay sheegaayaan in dad meesha lagu dilay ama lagu dhaawacay.

Dadka khubarada waxay dhahaan ciidan gacantiisa uu isku jabiyaa markuu sharciga dhinac maro, bacdina u galo xadgudubyo; marka DF waa inay arintaas iska ilaalisaa, ama DF ayadaa jabinaysa DF.

Shebab once again have lost key districts and localities in Hiiraan region. Buulobarde links south and the center of Somalia. Its fall represents strategic blow to Shebab. They will have difficult time now defending the center due to their inability to maintain their supply lines from the south and the central Somalia especially Galgaduud. The only option left for them now would be to intensify their guerrilla operations. This war too would have its own difficult in post conventional military defeat.

Reports coming from Mogadishu suggest the operations against Shebab may have been heavy handed, some people were reported to have been killed or wounded during massive operations in some districts of the town. The regional administration and the central government must make sure everything is done with the law, otherwise the government is creating new recruits for Shebab to carry out political violence. Treat people well but punish those who have been shown by a court of law to be criminals worthy of punishment.

War iyo Falanqayn. News and Analysis

1- Nin ganacsade ah oo la sheegay in lagu dilay Kismaayo.
2- AMISOM, ciidanka midowga Afrika ee ka jooga Soomaaliya oo la soo sheegay inay dileen dhaawaceena dad ganacsato ah oo waday khudaar;laamaha Dolwadda oo qaabilsan amniga, garsoorka iwm, arintaan inay ka hadlaan waaye, oo bacdi tilaabada ku haboon laga qaado, sida sharciga la horgooye kuwa waxaan sameeyay, magdhwo in la bixiyo iwm.
3- Maamul laga dhisaayo labada shabeelle. Arintaan oon wali kala caddayn.


A bussinessman or a doctor, profession is not fully known, is said to have been killed in Kismaayo, Jubba.


Members of African Union Mission in Somalia, AMISOM, were reported to have killed and wounded drivers and passengers in lower Shabelle region. The government of Somalia ought to investigate the matter and then take appropriate action, such as bringing relevant soldiers to court and paying compensation to affected families and so on, assuming the report is accurate.


Some people are working to form new state comprising the the two Shebelle regions, neighboring Mogadishu. 

Warar iyo Faalo: News and Analysis

1- Xarakada Shebaabka oo dagmooyinka dhowr ah oo ka tirsan Gedo iyo Bakool laga saaray; waxaa ka saaray ciidamo Soomaali ah iyo kuwo Itoobiyaan ah oo ka tirsan AMISOM, howllaha midowga Afrika ee Soomaaliya.
2- Qofka garwaaqsiga inuu ka tago ma aha, si walboy arinta u xumaato; waayo waxa kalifaaya guusha waa garta; waxaan gar ahayn waa burburraayaan.
2- Golaha wasiirada, ama golaha la cusleeyayaasha, aa maanta isku raacay qorshe canshuur ururin qabanaaya wadanka oo dhan ku saabsan mid toosan iyo mid dadbabn; warka rasmiga ah ee ka soo baxay golaha wasiirada ma sheegin arimaha canshuuraha dakadaha iyo dayuuro dageenada; tusaale dakadda Xamar 85 boqolkiisa hantida ka soo xaroota waxaa qaata Dowladda Federaaalka, bacdina waxay ku bixisaa howlaha federaalka, meesha dakadaha iyo dayuuro dageenada wadanka wixii ka soo baxay ay ku noqdaan isla meelahaas; tan caddaalo ma aha; marka waa in la saxaa; caddaalo aa loo baahanyahay; dadka Xamar ku dhaqana waxaas inay aqbalaan arin fiican ma aha. Dowladda Federaalka dadkay ka dhaxaysaa hala wada biisho waa war fiican; waxa kale wax la fahmi karo ma aha. Koonfurta iyo bartamaha Soomaaliya waxaa la haray hogaamiyayaal magacooda wax ku helaaya, bacdina aad u malaysid inay dantooda dan ka lahayn, ayagana waxaad malaysaa inay dantooda dan ka lahayn, waa kuwii danta lahaa. Waa maxaa iga galay.
3- Xamar waa caasimaddii wadanka, marka wixii ka soo baxa waa lawada leeyahay, waxa kalena qolo walba ay gaar u tahay taas caddaalad ma aha. Dakadaha iyo dayuuro dageenada oo dhan waa lawada leeyahay, waa war saxa ah.


1- Shebab suffers string of military defeats in the hands Somalia's security forces and Ethiopian army operating under the banner of African Union Mission in Somalia; four districts were lost by Shebab located in Gedo and Bakool regions.
2- Somalia's council of ministers have endorsed new taxation system for Somalia aimed at increasing the revenue of the government to carry out its mandated tasks.

Yaa ka masuul ah qaraxyada ka dhaca xaafadda Islii ee Nayrobi, iyo guud ahaan wadanka Kenya; Jawaabta rasmiga ah su'aashaan waxay u baahantay baaritaan iyo udurus miyir ku jiro. Wali ma jiraan wax noocaan ah oo laga diyaariyay.

Haddana waxaa jira in xarakada Shabaabka ay sheegtay inay damacsantahay inay qaraxyo ka fuliso wadanka Kenya; dad loo qabqabtayna waa jireen oo la xiriiriyay Shabaabka. Ujeedkana wuxuu ahaa, siday xarakada sheegatay inay ku qanciso wadanka Kenya in ciidamadooda ay kala baxaan koonfurta wadanka Soomaaliya.

Sidaas darteed, in wixii dhacaba dusha laga saaro waa mid meesha ku jirta maadaama ay dan u tahay, kuna dhiirigalinayso inay Kenya kala baxdo ciidamadeeda wadanka Soomaaliya.

Haddana saas oy tahay waxaa jira hirar kale oo ka jira wadanka Kenya sida tuugo rabta inay boobto hantida faraha badan ee taala Islii; xaafadaha Islii ku dhagan qaarkood waxaa dagan dad aa faqri u ah oo indhaha ku haaya inay mar un boobaan hantida taala Islii. Waa macquul, wax caddany ah looma haayo, inay ayagana qayb ka yihiin qaraxyada dhacaaya, si la iskugu dhaco, bacdina tiro badan ay ugu soo weeraraan Islii, bacdina jabsadaan dukaamada bacdina ka maalaystaan boobka.  Tan marka waxaa la dhihi karaa waa sababaha dhaqaalaha qaraxyada ka dhaca Islii.

Waxaa kaloo jirta kooxo raba kursiga Kamakuji, kursiga Yusuf Xassan, oo ayagana laleeyahay waxay rabaan inay Islii kursigeeda helaan, Yusufna uu ka hortaaganyahay.